MVP is what I'd use. Generally I do:
ASP.Net MVC = MVC
ASP.Net & WinForms = MVP
Silverlight & WPF = MVVM
For the toolbars, not too sure but seems like you could use a mediator for communicating changes and then possibly and abstract factory for swapping toolbars.
With the ORM, if you aren't going to need to scale to a client server or n-Tier then you can get ride of the service related layers and have your Presentation, BL and DAL all run on one machine. I'd encourage you to put an interface ontop of your BL so that if you need to add a service layer in the future it would be easier to do.
Ryan Andrus, Jul 28, 2011